The Many Endings of McCarthy’s Speakership Battle

Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s continuing fight to be the next Speaker of the House is a sure reproof of the old saw that “all good things come to an end.” On the other hand, bad things don’t end either. The Senate is the closest it’s been to abolishing the filibuster, but madmen have figured out a way to export it to the House. For the the Bakersfield hopeful, ego and ambition convinced him to sit tight in the pot while the radical wing of his party turn up the heat. What started with the Freak Caucus branding other Americans as ‘enemies’ and led to insurrection now culminates in fearless open revolt against the majority of their party. They gloat in their ability to extract all the blood from the Speakership while refusing to do more than vaguely hint that they may yet be persuaded to stop humiliating the institution. It would be anticlimactic if not for the theater of the endless votes.

Congress has given away power before — like waiting for the President to offer a budget, which gives up statutory authority granted by the Constitution— stanch partisan bleeding before. This seems not fundamentally different. I saw the rough outline of this back in November and so did quite a few other political observers. The pardon-seeking Caucus were always going to want (and in some cases need) more concessions than are even in his power to give. While I confidently stated he would never be Speaker, if you had challenged me I would have said I thought that perhaps concessions would solve that problem. Perhaps McCarthy was banking on the same, and perhaps it may still happen.

But perhaps not. There’s a paradox in his long quest for power. Colleagues say McCarthy is generally affable and easy to get along with, but he uses an easygoing and low-key manner as salve for his reckless and wounding partisanship and lies. It is not enough to win over the hearts of colleagues mindful that he will say and do any thing to score points. He is not trusted, or even feared. His naked ambition for power has driven him to very publicly retreat from his own principles in order to mollify the extremist Caucus. His reward for constantly failing to challenge or embrace them is more than humiliation for himself and his office; the House’s bullies have marked him for a soft target. Perhaps he is too familiar with playing the role of bully to understand what must be done to defeat them.

History never ends and all of these grim errands have been sent in from decades past. Newt Gingrich came first, and this mess will continue to play out in years to come, absent a miracle, or disaster. McCarthy is not solely responsible for this mess, but he is a central player in the GOP’s leadership failure. I am certain that he has always been keenly aware that Trumpism and the Freedom Caucus have support in the D.C. microcosmos, on cable news, the always-online crowd, the fundraising circuit, and in that weird and unlovable cult called “the base.” We can explain his actions as reading the votes: Even though their numbers are small, they are certainly enough to defy his Speakership bid. But you would think that it would have been easy to call their bluff. He probably should have, but he is not. I guess Tucker Carlson is just that scary. It is easy to second-guess him from outside, but it sure looks as if he has retreated into the fishbowl and lost sight of the world as it is.

So how does this all end? I’m no expert on House procedure but have had a quick refresher (like everyone else) over the last couple days. Here are my bets on the chances of a number of possibilities:

The holdouts against McCarthy may have their way and force another Speaker just to make a point, getting two things they clearly want — concessions, no Speakership for McCarthy, and an unmistakable PR win. Given the extreme value the bunch places on theatrics, I would not count out they hold out against McCarthy, so long as he does not figure out a method to make some of them defect against the others — and we did already see Rep. Greene complaining that her fellow extremists had already defected. Stunning to find out that there is no honor amongst the Freedom Caucus. Alternatively, they may cave after having inflicted an appropriate number of minutes of free campaign advertising on all of us. One of these results seem quite likely to me.

Next, consider a European, Parliamentary-style ‘unity government,” in a two-party system. I think that many people in the body are not constitutionally or personally opposed to such an idea, but the media have certainly sold the story that partisanship is at such a high pitch that this will never happen. I am fully comfortable saying that McCarthy fully buys the argument that partisanship will doom any Republican to recall or summary execution for harboring such thoughts. This probably is not true. Party leadership seem loath to take cues from the actual registered base of Republican voters who put a premium on policy wins rather than messaging, fundraising, and appealing to the former President’s base, but a formal “unity government” would require the consent of leadership roles. And leadership seem more concerned with secondary and tertiary concerns like “what job will I have lined up once I follow Paul Ryan out of this body” and “screw waiting — how can I make money fundraising off this right now?”

Outright GOP defections to vote for Speaker Jeffries are even more outlandish absent the Representatives also leave the party entirely to become Independent or Democratic. I do not think that any GOP member could remain in office through the next election cycle while remaining in the party and having voted for the opposition party, let alone get committee assignments or any other kind of perks.

Option Four (or so), it is just possible that we have no Speaker at all. The mechanism by which this happens is unclear to me, but it would not be too functionally different from having no Speaker at all, except that it would give the Freak Caucus none of the wins they so desire, because nobody but the Speaker and certain horserace political journos are interested in Freak Caucus calls to “drain the swamp” by putting them above the reach of ethics rules, or indeed in any of their other outlandish proposals to bankrupt democracy and the nation. Alas, this would be a very funny outcome, and perhaps simple majority could rule that Rep. McCarthy could ask for a Speaker vote every now and then, as a treat. Some commentators indicate that current House rules demand a Speaker to seat members and get other things done; one wonders whether this can be overridden. In any case, this seems unlikely.

Five, perhaps everybody can be Speaker. Perhaps there can be a carousel of Speakers, with painted heads on springs to stand in for the members who cannot be bothered to stay for votes even less important than the Speaker. I’d better close with an appraisal of the Democratic response to this crisis. Opinions on how Democrats have handled this range the gamut from “Democrats need to save the Congress” to “Democrats should twist the knife and watch them bleed,” and some people are simultaneously saying both things.

Rep. Hakeem Jeffries’ comment from early yesterday was that Democrats are not offering ultimatums or demands, and that Democrats want Republicans to figure out how to manage their own majority. This is not a bad message or strategy. Instead of trying to force different outcomes, the Democrats’ plan is essentially not to rescue the Republicans from their lack of unity, honor, and unwillingness to ask for help. If they majority party needs help, the least it can do is ask.

Just as importantly, while Democrats would likely not mind defections to create a Democratic majority and Speakership, it does seem wise not to play dirty to try for other outcomes that likely cannot happen without defections anyway — why play dirty for what will have to fall in your lap if it can happen? Pragmatically, it strips some of the plausibility in Republicans, especially the extremist Caucus, blaming the debacle on Democrats. While I am not opposed to those stating the importance of never acceding to this Republican party gaining control of the House, and not assuming it will be flipped back Dem in 2024, there is probably no good way to forestall the possibility of two years’ worth of debt crisis and government shutdowns without an overture from Republican leadership. The lack of Republican control of the other bodies (ignoring the Supreme Court) means that the show will be mostly limited to the House.

In the meantime, McCarthy — and any prospective pretenders to the gavel— would do well to take a page from Leader McConnell in the Senate and start pushing back harder on the charismatic but ultimately unpopular characters who have cost them and this nation dearly. Perhaps they can even find the wisdom to acknowledge that the country is not quite so enthusiastic about two years of political investigations, single-chamber impeachment votes, and paralyzed government. Democrats ultimately do not have the votes or the power to forestall this eventuality — but perhaps McCarthy has it, if he has the guts to do what is right: Step aside, or get tough and ask for help from across the aisle.